tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34234358.post8839097278128418691..comments2022-05-13T06:38:48.903-07:00Comments on Bob Vila Would Not Approve: Ah, CNBCBenjamin Supnikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04886313844644521178noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34234358.post-76707795064555055842008-06-03T03:21:00.000-07:002008-06-03T03:21:00.000-07:00Hi Ben,Yes the peak oil thing is a very complex be...Hi Ben,<BR/><BR/>Yes the peak oil thing is a very complex beast as I learned over the years (and there are so many other "peak XYZ" just around the corner which we are less aware off). Because it is not a uni-/bi-/tri-variate equation, but one with so many variables that most people just can't understand (and this is always a good point where mainstream media can fill in the gap with manipulative propaganda - whatever their motivation might be). For example, I find it interesting, that a too high oil price can kill economies (or at least make them struggle big time), and when this happens, you see a big demand destruction. And such a demand destruction then would lead to lower prices ... from a pure mathematic point of view this would look nice, but as humans, who are more or less dependent on this system really don't want to live in the middle of the equation (where the demand destruction happens) ...<BR/><BR/>Other big factors are, that from a pure physical point of view, we are not short on energy. I mean, just look for example at the sun. The daily input from it far-far-far exceeds our need ... only problem, we are still struggling to harness it in large enough quantities ... not to mention the "tiny-little" problem of energy storage ...<BR/><BR/>So many factors, so many potential outcomes ... but the question is, which seemingly chaotic human/corporate decisions lead to which results ...<BR/><BR/>I could go on and on over this topic ... but I leave it as is for now :-)<BR/><BR/>Andras / alpilotxAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34234358.post-92194720672273486172008-06-02T13:24:00.000-07:002008-06-02T13:24:00.000-07:00Hi Andras,Interesting that you bring up Peak Oil.....Hi Andras,<BR/><BR/>Interesting that you bring up Peak Oil...my fear is that us humans tend to look for the general in the noise...and in this case we are attempting to see evidence of a very real, but slow and large trend (the exhaustion of accessible oil) in what is essentially a localized market fluctuation (e.g. demand is inelastic, production doesn't ramp up fast, thus we can get price spikes, then speculators jump in and amplify them).<BR/><BR/>My fear is that when oil crashes (as production belatedly ramps up while demand ramps down in response to both high prices and lower world GDP growth, the speculators will freak out and bail :-) people will say "see, Peak Oil is a myth", similar to how Global Warming gets attacked every time we have an unusually cold winter.<BR/><BR/>We're just not good at believing that noise in data really is noise in data. :-)Benjamin Supnikhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04886313844644521178noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-34234358.post-55830129132592457072008-06-02T03:52:00.000-07:002008-06-02T03:52:00.000-07:00I don't know if you have read the following blog p...I don't know if you have read the following blog post or not, but in the latter case I would highly recommend it to you:<BR/><A HREF="http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3997" REL="nofollow">Has Peak Oil--As a Meme--"Tipped"? (Out of Futures Backwardation and into Contango)</A><BR/><BR/>Andras / alpilotxAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com